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It’s been pump and burn for two and a half centuries. Now the bills are coming due, and there’s no way to pay them.
The Secretary-General of the United Nations commissioned a world class group of biophysicists to contribute a background report for the forthcoming UN Global Sustainable Development Report. To paraphrase what the scientists told the UN: Brace for Impact.
A longer version of what they said is that the modern world is besieged by myriad existential problems, all of which share two characteristics: their root cause is our mishandling of fossil fuels; and they cannot be solved by the world’s existing economic and political institutions. These ideas will not be new or strange to denizens of The Daily Impact, but it is new to see them expressed in such uncompromising terms by so lofty a scientific group.
The scope and the implications of these two basic assumptions are nothing short of breathtaking, whether or not they are new to you. First, that every advance of humankind in the last three centuries has been the result of basically one thing — our finding and using cheap fossil fuels. And second, virtually every problem that threatens our existence now is a result of the very same thing — our misusing and running out of cheap fossil fuels.
It was not our intelligence, or creativity, or superior character that brought on the Age of Wretched Excesses, it was simply the fact that we tripped over chunks of coal and accidentally set alight puddles of oil. We acted precisely like children who discover a bag of candy — we gorged on the delights of fossil fuels until we became deathly ill. For two and a half centuries we burned coal and oil with abandon, enjoying their blessings while the air darkened, the rivers ran foul, the soil sickened and the planet began to warm.
How can we be running out of cheap fossil fuels when America is proclaimed to be in the middle of a new oil revolution? The key is the word cheap. What matters is not just how much energy you find (in the form of oil or coal or whatever) but how much energy it took you to find it and extract it. Once upon a time, a conventional oil well would deliver hundreds and hundred of units of energy for every unit it took to drill the well. Most of that oil is gone. Fracked oil and gas, tar-sands oil, deep-water wells, all require almost as much energy to extract them as they eventually yield. More and more of the world’s financial resources are being consumed to satisfy its appetite for energy resources. The consequences for the world’s economies are all malign.
Just as fundamental, and just as strongly stated in the scientists’ report to the UN, is the realization that all of what we tend to regard as geopolitics — wars and conflicts in the Middle East, in Africa, Central and South America, migrations of desperate people into Europe, Brazil, Costa Rica, the United States, rising unrest in the countries of all these regions — all have a single common cause: the implacable creep of climate change triggered by the burning of all those fossil fuels whose delights are now hard to discern through the thickening haze of soot and smoke and dust in the air and the rising seawater in the fields and streets.
For all the report’s exhaustive detail and unflinching analysis, it refuses to kick the hopium habit, and pretends that we could still avoid the consequences of our centuries of self-indulgence, and maintain our lifestyles more or less as we have become accustomed to them. All it would take, these world class scientists contend, is massive investments to counter climate change, stimulate economies, sustain populations and reduce inequality; and iron regulations to control consumption and carbon emissions.
After all those things have been accomplished, when pigs are flying everywhere and hell has thoroughly frozen over, we will be fine.
Notwithstanding the hopium, these scientists have done a great service by assessing the circumstances of our world bluntly, simply, and authoritatively. In laymens’ terms — we’re screwed. Brace for Impact.
[A good article on the report: Scientists Warn the UN of Capitalism’s Imminent Demise. The report itself: Global Sustainable Development Report 2019 drafted by the Group of independent scientists.]
I’m a male aged 73, enjoyed the best of this planet’s offerings and as there’s sweet eff all I can do about the future, I personally couldn’t give a rats ass about things.
Y’all have a nice IMPACT now. Especially those young KLOWNS who currently spend their every waking moment staring at infantile Social Media BS on 12 square inches of insanely expensive coloured glass. BCNU
David,
Your comment smells of fear to me.
Chris
Yes David it was nice while it lasted. And as I sit immobile at a green light and honk my horn politely (beep beep) at those self immersed young KLOWNS I’m reminded of ole Mr. Mckinnon yelling “get off my lawn” as I retrieved an errant base ball as we played stick ball in the street.
Hi Tom,
A month or two back I read a first edition copy of “The Limits to Growth” which was written way back in the early 70’s. It tells the same story, but they also modelled pollution, resource depletion, industrial output, and human population. From what I can recall no model under any scenario managed to exceed a human population of 8.2 billion and we’re rapidly nudging up to that point. They were pretty spot on about the population numbers today and that isn’t a bad achievement from so long ago. We don’t really lack for knowledge or data, we lack the motivation to alter our current trajectory. I am curious as to whether the scientists who wrote this study did anything personally with the knowledge they’d earned?
Chris
“We don’t really lack for knowledge or data, we lack the motivation to alter our current trajectory.”
I believe this to be in error. You and I have become aware of the extent of the problem, but you and I represent a small fraction of the population; the small fraction who are a bit more intelligent, curious and discerning. Consequently, we have educated ourselves by reading the works of seers who have compiled the necessary information required to flip the switch that turns on the light required to illuminate this very dark future. The motivation to do what is required would blossom if the masses would understand the true nature of what is about to unfold, but they are(like Tom pointed out)too much like children with a bag of candy to consider the consequences.
When I do approach people on this subject, they almost invariably indicate their sublime trust in technology to pull us through any such challenges. Humanity is simply required at this point to experience a purge that few can imagine. The remnant that survives may or may not be the wiser for it.
“After all those things have been accomplished, when pigs are flying everywhere and hell has thoroughly frozen over, we will be fine.” The best sentence I have read of late. Thank you.
The world is the way it is because that is the reflection of human nature. I can hope that is not the case, however……
Hi Tom,
I just wanted to say I’ve been a long time reader and truly enjoy a different opinion and a unfettered your writing brings.
Just wanted to say thanks for all the hard work
“Hopium”…I just got it!
Perhaps there is nothing amiss in the big picture?
The purpose of life is to disperse energy
“The truly dangerous ideas in science tend to be those that threaten the collective ego of humanity and knock us further off our pedestal of centrality.”
“There is growing evidence that life, the biosphere, is no different. It has often been said the life’s complexity contravenes the second law, indicating the work either of a deity or some unknown natural process, depending on one’s bias. Yet the evolution of life and the dynamics of ecosystems obey the second law mandate, functioning in large part to dissipate energy.”
“The concept of life as energy flow, once fully digested, is profound. Just as Darwin fundamentally connected humans to the non-human world, a thermodynamic perspective connects life inextricably to the non-living world.”
https://www.edge.org/response-detail/10674
Terrific link – great article!
The Industrial Revolution was a Faustian bargain. Enough said. The Devil pays well in the short run. But the long run is now facing us.
Mephisto’s evil laughter must be echoing through the halls of Gehenna now.
“reduce inequality; and iron regulations to control consumption and carbon emissions. ”
…Iron regulations to control consumption….
For thee, and not for me, will be the mantra.
I sincerely hope that the “Citizen Administrator” in my Airstrip 1 locale has a sense of humanity.