The Fog of (the New Cold) War

When we find ourselves surrounded by thick fog that obscures familiar landmarks and directional signs, we need help to get home, or to the pub, whichever comes first. It happened to me in the mountains once, and I was glad for the company of my faithful dog, who promptly abandoned me. I found him home by the fire when I eventually made it there.

Natural fog is one thing, it comes and goes, but the industrial smokescreens being laid down these days by our politicians and disinformation sources have become chronic. We need either a very good dog, or some other tool, in order to navigate them. In these cases, logic, as applied by an experienced critical mind, is often the equivalent of a functioning GPS unit in the wilderness. It might not get you home, but it can show you where you are.

A recent case in point was the alleged attack on a retired spy and his daughter in Salisbury, England, two months ago. Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were found unconscious on a park bench in the center of Salisbury. The smoke generated around the incident was the equivalent of a continental forest fire, it could be seen from space, yet much of it can be dispersed by elementary logic.

Let’s fast forward through the initial smoke screen of factoids (because it could have been generated by incompetent journalism): they were gassed with a nerve agent in the park along with 30 bystanders! No, they were gassed in their car! No, the toxin was put on their home’s front-door knob! Wait, it was Colonel Mustard with a candlestick in the conservatory! Most of this crap self-corrected within a few days. There were no other casualties in the park; there was no nerve agent in the car; and no one was playing Clue (I made that one up). But the curious matter of the doorknob persists to this day.

Let’s just get to the official smoke, laid down in cubic miles by the Prime Minister, Theresa May, in the House of Commons five days after the attack. This is what she said:

“It is now clear that Mr Skripal and his daughter were poisoned with a military-grade nerve agent of a type developed by Russia … there are therefore only two plausible explanations … Either this was a direct act by the Russian state against our country. Or the Russian government lost control of this potentially catastrophically damaging nerve agent and allowed it to get into the hands of others.”

On the basis of this statement, the United Kingdom and 28 other countries expelled a total of 153 Russian diplomats — the largest such retaliation in diplomatic history — and took various other punitive actions against Russia because it was obviously the perpetrator of this heinous act.

Using logic, and our critical minds, let’s examine what the Prime Minister actually told us:

  • That the Skripals were attacked with a “military-grade nerve agent of a type developed by Russia.” (Leaks claimed that she desperately wanted to say flatly that the nerve agent was made in Russia, but her own scientists threatened to revolt if she did.) What she did not say was that the Russians developed it in the 1980s, and stopped making it shortly thereafter, while several other countries have  experimented with it.
  • That “therefore” —  and that is her word, one you find used in logical arguments —  “therefore” only two explanations are possible: Russia did it, or somebody else did it.  That’s not how she put it, of course, she said if the Russians didn’t do it they lost control of the nerve agent so somebody else could do it (as in any of the other 194 sovereign nations in the world), but if that’s what happened, it’s still Russia’s fault.

Every time the Brits have tried to mend this tattered rag of disinformation, they have torn more holes in it. For example, they now profess that the assassins drenched the outside door latch of the Skipal’s home with the nerve agent, that both victims touched the door latch on leaving that morning, thus contaminating themselves. But instead of dying in 30 seconds, as anyone else would have, they did not feel the effects for seven hours, after they had driven, and walked, and shopped, and dined.  

There are hundreds of other logical inconsistencies and fallacies associated with the official version of these events. Logic, applied by any critical mind, tells us that we are being enveloped by fog, and that begs the question: where are the critical minds, what has happened to the practice of logic, in those 28 countries? What logic does not get you, of course, is the answer to the puzzle of who did it and why. For that a critical mind would have to have access to the facts of the case.

So the fog thickens, and although I know it’s fog, I can’t find home. Where’s the damn dog?

 

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10 Responses to The Fog of (the New Cold) War

  1. SomeoneInAsia says:

    How nice it would be if we all had the powers of the Blue Fairy. Then anytime anyone tried to lie to anyone else or to manipulate anyone else with lies, the lies would be fully and instantly exposed for all to see. As a result all sociopaths would be put out of business, justice would prevail everywhere on earth, and there’s no telling how much human evil would cease to exist. Oh, and I’m sure all those in positions of power would have noses longer than the Great Wall of China.

    Wonder if a movie could be made out of this idea?

    • BC_EE says:

      A movie along those lines does exist, (and the only Ricky Gervais thing I can stand to watch), The Invention of Lying.

      However, you would see in the movie the opposite of lying and would definitely lie within the realm of “careful what you wish for”.

  2. Greg Knepp says:

    It seems to me that espionage is a murky and high-risk profession. Who knows what kind of shady hijinks this fellow was involved in – how many enemies on both sides of the fence he may have made.

    I don’t cotton with attempted murder, but, you know, stuff happens…just sayin’.

    • Tom Lewis says:

      He’s been retired for a while, hard to imagine that he’s any real threat to anyone. More likely, it seemd to me, he’s being used by manipulators and smoke blowers to send messages. Politics is a murky and high-risk profession as well.

  3. L says:

    The standard media narrative about the Skripals isn’t convincing. I tend to think that if the British government had proof, or very convincing evidence of Russia’s responsibility, they would have put it on the table. They haven’t, so I assume they can’t actually prove their assertions. Which means it is quite likely Russia isn’t responsible at all, and someone else was. But in that case, who? I’ve heard Israel suggested, along with assorted others I don’t remember, but there wasn’t any smoking gun. It could still be Russia, yes, but we don’t know that for sure, and throwing that many diplomats out of that many countries over unproved assertions was an unreasonable response. Then there’s Syria, which really does look like a proxy war between both regional and global powers as well as a civil war.

    One message I take from all this is that those in power in the West want their populations to hate and fear Russia. But the USA etc. can’t go to war with another nuclear-armed state directly, so what is their end game? Is it just keeping people looking over their shoulder at Russia, rather than getting angry at the economic and other problems in their own societies? It seems awfully high-stakes for that. What if someone slips up, and a direct war between Russia and the USA breaks out?

  4. L says:

    What is Russia actually doing? It’s being used by the Western governments as a bogeyman, but what are its actual deeds, and what does it want? I assume Putin wants unquestioned great power status for Russia back, but he’s pretty much got that by now.

    Beyond that, I don’t know. Control over neighboring countries in Eastern Europe, or just major influence there? I don’t know. A major say in what happens in the Middle East? Judging by Russia’s role in the war in Syria, I’d say Russia wants that, and is well on the way to getting it, too.

  5. Daniel Reich says:

    Copied from Google when I queried, which is the most resource rich country:
    Russia is number one on the list by far. Its total estimated natural resources are worth $75 trillion. The country has many different natural resources, but its main deposits include coal, oil, natural gas, gold and timber. The country also has the second-largest supply of rare earth metals in the world.
    Now, using your logical minds, what do you think the dim witted war Hawks who pull the levers of power have in mind?

  6. Dennis A Mitchell says:

    Then we have the U.S. dismantling the Soviet plant where Novichok was produced. So just who lost control of it?

  7. When the fog is very thick look at the ground while you walk. Familiarity with the area should reveal familiar landmarks to walk between. The fog is there to distract, but if we know our path we will stay on track. And the fog not just to distract but to demonstrate existing power relationships, to subconsciously intimidate and remind all the rest of us that we are powerless. The lying is done with a smiling face so the social signal is sent that the made up threats and fabrications are sincere. This makes them believed. Your personal ideology along with all the knowledge you know to be true is the familiar ground you must walk upon.

    Know your path and where you are going and a thousand fogs will not keep you from your destination. <== Sun Dog Tsu

    The Skripal case makes one wonder how many doorknobs have murdered people before this one finally got caught. But how did that doorknob get caught anyway? Doorknob police? But if all the other doorknobs have killed successfully before this doorknob did there can't have been doorknob police until now.

    I think I ate a big leaf of tainted lettuce on a burger yesterday. Had issues with my stomach all last night from it. The first thing I always assume though is that it is probably food poisoning so it could be a case of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Perhaps instead of being Lettuced I got Novichoked instead! How would I know the difference?

    Is someone trying to make me wag my tail and if so why?