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Of all the mathematical concepts humanity has invented to help deal with reality — such as zero, infinity, numbers, etc. — surely the least useful and most toxic is the notion of “average.” Like empty calories — food that has no nutrition — the idea of an average something is without any real utility. In a heartbeat I can look up the average high temperature for today and it will not tell me what the actual high temperature will be, five or ten degrees above or below the average. So what use is it to know the average?
Meteorology uses a lot of averages. They rate the likelihood of storms of a certain size and destructiveness by labeling them, for example, storms that on average will occur once in 100 years, or once in 1,000 years. So far this year, the American Midwest has experienced four “once in 1,000 year” storms. In 2018, a single location, Ellicott City, Maryland, experienced two thousand-year storms in two years. Knowing the average chance of a serious storm where you live is content-free information. Continue reading